The price of green coffee has surged dramatically over the last six months, with multiple interrelated causes driving this unprecedented volatility. Climate change, extreme weather events, rising production costs, global supply chain disruptions, economic instability, and increased consumer demand have all contributed to this spike, reshaping the economics of coffee around the world.
Climate Change and Extreme Weather
Climate change is a dominant factor behind higher green coffee prices in 2025. Severe droughts and erratic rainfall patterns have affected yields in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest coffee-producing countries. Brazil experienced prolonged droughts and wildfires, while Vietnam faced heatwaves and uneven rainfall. Scientists found that droughts affecting Brazil in 2023–and subsequent crop losses–were made 10 to 30 times more likely by climate change, resulting in a supply shortage and a price increase of over 55% in 2024. Damage has been both direct (burning of productive branches, crop loss) and indirect (weakened plants, increased pests).
Weather issues make production unpredictable, putting pressure on supply, and heightens risk for farmers whose incomes rely on stable yields. These conditions are unlikely to improve in the short term, and until the climate stabilises, volatility will remain embedded in the coffee market.
Supply Chain Disruptions
Coffee’s journey from farm to cup spans thousands of miles, making it susceptible to logistical challenges. Global shipping routes have been disrupted by geopolitical tensions and port closures, such as the closure of key Red Sea routes, leading to shipping delays and higher freight costs. Increased container costs and congestion have added further expense, reducing the availability of green coffee and inflating prices. Specialty roasters who rely on relationship-based sourcing have struggled to absorb these increases without passing costs onto consumers.
Rising Production Costs
Beyond the weather, coffee farmers are grappling with higher costs of energy, agrochemicals, and labour. Increases in minimum wages and general inflationary pressures are making cultivation more expensive. As a result, farmers are forced to increase their prices to maintain viability, further pushing up prices for importers and roasters.
Many are prioritizing efficiency and seeking ways to add value through differentiated or specialty coffees, but these strategies take time to implement and do not provide immediate relief. Financing along the coffee value chain has also tightened, limiting growth and investment in sustainable production.
Economic Instability and Currency Fluctuations
Green coffee is traded globally in US dollars. Volatile exchange rates have made it costlier for buyers operating in other currencies, such as pounds or euros. Economic instability in producing countries adds further uncertainty, especially as inflation increases input costs for farmers and exporters.
Tariffs and Geopolitical Factors
Trade disputes have fueled instability. In August 2025, the US imposed a new 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, which threatens to reduce American imports and drive up domestic stockpiles, injecting fresh uncertainty into global supply chains. Exporters in Brazil now seek alternative markets like China, changing established flows and creating competition for limited supply. Major coffee brands are responding by securing new partnerships to navigate tariff risks.
Regulatory Changes
New legislation, including the EU Deforestation-Free Regulation (EUDR), is reshaping global coffee production structures, increasing compliance costs and supply chain complexity for smallholder farmers. These regulatory pressures are expected to further increase prices and reduce supply of certain origins.
Consumer Demand Growth
Worldwide coffee consumption continues to rise, especially for specialty coffees in emerging markets and among younger demographics. The continued popularity of coffee means demand is outstripping supply, amplifying competitive pressure and driving commodity prices to new highs.
Price Volatility and Market Response
In early 2025, Arabica futures climbed to around $4.41 per pound, the highest ever recorded, while Robusta surged to a near five-decade high. These all-time highs have sent shockwaves through the industry, forcing roasters to reconsider pricing, margins, and sourcing strategies.
Specialty coffee businesses simply cannot absorb such increases without adjusting retail prices. Many are investing more in sustainability, ethical sourcing, and quality assurance, but these initiatives also contribute to rising costs.
The Outlook
Price volatility is unlikely to subside soon. While some origins are seeing temporary rebounds in supply, underlying problems related to climate, logistics, and demand suggest future price surges are possible. Producers, roasters, and consumers must adapt to a changed reality: higher and more unstable prices, more costly compliance, riskier supply chains, and an urgent focus on long-term sustainability.
Ongoing research links coffee price increases directly to climate-related events and stresses the need for systemic change. Until global emissions and environmental impacts are addressed, coffee will remain exposed to the shocks of a warming and unpredictable world. Supporting sustainable practices and ethical sourcing will not only safeguard quality but also help stabilize the future of coffee for producers and consumers alike.
In summary, the surge in green coffee prices over the last six months is the product of a perfect storm: climate-driven crop failures, costlier production, supply and shipping bottlenecks, currency and tariff upheaval, and insatiable consumer demand. These pressures are transforming every aspect of the coffee industry, and unless decisive action is taken to address the planet’s climate crisis and supply chain vulnerabilities, high prices will likely persist.
At Horsham Coffee Roaster we are dedicated to sustainable practices and this means making sure we do everything we can to support fair green coffee pricing and positive environmental practices. This means we are having to increase our prices in line with our increased costs. These price rises will still keep us very competitive and we are committed to offering fantastic coffees with options that are still affordable to all of our customers.
